Background: Coronary Heart Disease (CHD) remains a major cause of mortality in the United Kingdom. Yet predictions of future CHD mortality are potentially problematic due to population ageing and increase in obesity and diabetes. Here we explore …
Background: Breast cancer is the most frequently diagnosed cancer in women and estimating its relative risks and trends of incidence at the area-level is helpful for health policy makers. However, traditional methods of estimation which do not take …
A total of 26,220 foxes that were hunted or found dead in Thuringia, Germany, between 1990 and 2009 were examined for infection with Echinococcus multilocularis, the causative agent of human alveolar echinococcosis, and 6853 animals were found …
Background: The aim of this study was to model the geographical variation in incidence and risk factors of seven prevalent cancers in Iran. Methods: The data for cancers of esophagus, stomach, bladder, colorectal, lung, prostate, and female breast …
We propose a stochastic model for the analysis of time series of disease counts as collected in typical surveillance systems on notifiable infectious diseases. The model is based on a Poisson or negative binomial observation model with two …
In dieser Arbeit werden räumliche und zeitliche Strukturen epidemiologischer Daten mittels moderner Bayes-Verfahren analysiert. Als Glättungsprioris finden hauptsächlich autoregressive Verteilungen wie Gauss-Markov-Zufallsfelder und Random Walks Verwendung.
Derartige komplexe Modelle können nur mit MCMC-Methode geschätzt werden. Es werden effiziente Algorithmen vorgestellt, welche die Schätzung der Parameter in annehmbarem Zeitbedarf zulassen. Insbesondere für die Modellierung von Raum-Zeit-Interaktionen sind diese Algorithmen wichtig.
Als Anwendung räumlicher Bayesianischer Modelle wird die Analyse von Daten zur Inzi- denz von Wildtierkrankheiten vorgestellt.
We apply a full Bayesian model framework to a dataset on stomach cancer mortality in West Germany. The data are stratified by age group, year, and district. Using an age-period-cohort model with an additional spatial component, our goal is to …
The analysis of the geographical distribution of disease on the scale of geographic areas such as administrative boundaries plays an important role in veterinary epidemiology. Prevalence estimates of wildlife population surveys are often based on …